We, the tech/startup/VC world, are not doing ourselves any favors by bragging about the big valuations we are raising money at. We are in fact doing ourselves great harm. Because it makes us look like spoiled brats who are being fed with a silver spoon. Those inside these companies (Spotify, Airbnb, Square, Twitter, etc, etc) know that is not what is really going on. We know how hard it is to build something really new and different. It is a struggle and nothing comes easy. But it is important to realize how the broader world sees it. And they just see billions December 05, 2012 at 11:14PM
according to internal Spotify data, after an initial burst of interest that resembles the pattern for sales of music, a funny thing happens. Songs in the company’s catalog are played again and again, with no diminution in popularity. The reason is simple: people are building playlists. It’s as if an artist were paid every time one of their fans dropped a needle on their record…”
Gerd comments: I love Spotify and certainly hope they can indeed change the way the music industry work - all it will take is approximately $3 billion in VC money ;) November 27, 2012 at 08:09AM
Among the bigger-name streaming services are Spotify, which uses a freemium ad-supported, desktop app-based model; Rdio, which takes a tiered, cloud-based approach; and Pandora, whose personalised streaming radio is also available on a freemium ad-supported model. There’s also Wimp, Rara, Napster, We7, Pure, Last.fm, Senzari, Grooveshark, Sony Music Unlimited, Songza, Mog, Samsung Music Hub, and Microsoft’s Xbox Music, to name a few. In total, more than 500 legal music services are operating across the world, together having registered over 13 million paying subscribers - a figure that jumped more than 65 per cent last year, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s (IFPI) Digital Music Report 2012 ….
Too big to succeed: Is the music streaming market doomed to failure? | ITProPortal.com
It’s all about access, not ownership. And Freemium. The music business needs to get this, or fold.

(via futuristgerd)
- “While streaming is especially popular with younger consumers, downloading music through services…” (thefuturesagency.com)
- futuristgerd: Think about it for a minute: Google knows our… (thefuturesagency.com)
- futuristgerd: (via MediaFuturist: New video: Rebooting Media:… (thefuturesagency.com)

Check out this quite entertaining new video of a web-conference with Andrea from Digital Music Trends, on the topic of Internet Radio Acts, Pandora, Google’s Free matching & more (by Andrea Leonelli).
Sirius, for example, pays 8 percent of its revenue to record companies and artists. Pandora pays a fraction of a cent each time a song is streamed, which last year amounted to about 54 percent of its revenue, or $149 million.
“The rate being too high dramatically depresses how much music gets played,” Mr. Westergren said in a recent interview. “It has really suffocated the industry.”
Gerd adds: the music industry loves to choke their golden geese. Pandora should pay a percentage of revenues just like any other radio service, IMHO. November 05, 2012 at 06:34PM
While streaming is especially popular with younger consumers, downloading music through services like iTunes is still a prominent way to listen to music, according to research by AYTM. AYTM’s survey indicated that 37% of US internet users used free music streaming services like Pandora in October. Moreover, 32% paid to download music through a music service like iTunes. Only about 9% paid for a music streaming service like Spotify on a subscription basis that month.
With Streaming and Sharing, Teens Find Ways Around Paying for Music - eMarketer
Gerd comments: it’s not rocket-science: cherry picking songs on iTunes feels good to some people because it’s only a $ £ € every now and then, but committing to a monthly fee on Spotify is totally different ( I do, and love it). Neither one will really get EVERY music fan engaged. The solution: Bundle Spotify et al into ISPs, operators, etc, make it ‘feel like free’ ie totally painless for users, then upsell to next levels such as HD, more offline storage, fan clubs, live concert streams etc. Music industry guys: you can’t have the cake and eat it - time to wake up.


Whereas Pandora, and many of its competitors, use a compulsory license to stream music to users, Apple is looking to forge direct deals with labels for more comprehensive and flexible licensing. In other words, Apple radio probably won’t ever tell you that you can’t skip a song. And unlike Pandora, if you want to listen to all Johnny Cash, all the time, Apple won’t fold in music that’s similar to Johnny Cash just to follow licensing requirements. In essence, it is expected to be the best internet radio ever. If real, of course.
Watch Out, Pandora: Apple’s Streaming Radio Service Could Launch In Early 2013 | TechCrunch
Gerd comments: Apple knows that very soon, listening IS THE SAME as downloading - there is no real difference between radio and ‘buying a song’, very soon. Stay tuned.
- In Five Years, Most Africans Will Have Smartphones | TechCrunch (thefuturesagency.com)
- The Future of Music & Media Gerd Leonhard at Plugg Conference 2009 (gerdleonhard.typepad.com)

Looks like streaming music is rising fast:
Ben Sisaro via NYTimes.com
Online Radio Audience Climbing: Two recent studies have found that the audience for online radio services like Pandora is rising quickly. A report released Tuesday by Arbitron and the market research firm Edison Research found that 103 million people listened to online radio in the last month and, in a 30 percent jump from last year, 76 million in the last week. A recent report by the NPD Group, another research firm, also found that 43 percent of Web users listen to online radio, while numbers held steady for those listening to music on terrestrial radio (84 percent) and CD’s (74 percent). Both reports were based on listener surveys.
The Futures Agency (TFA) helps brands, companies, organizations, governments and individuals to better understand - and then, act upon - the challenges and opportunities facing us in the next 3-7 years. We aim to find, filter and share actionable foresights, and work with our clients to imagine and design their preferred futures.
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